Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#109
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#261
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#104
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 18.3% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.6% 4.7% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.5 11.3 12.6
.500 or above 85.0% 89.8% 71.7%
.500 or above in Conference 76.9% 80.8% 66.2%
Conference Champion 15.0% 17.2% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.9% 2.3%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 0.7%
First Round14.8% 17.4% 7.6%
Second Round4.4% 5.4% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 48 - 9
Quad 411 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 156   Texas Arlington W 73-66 74%    
  Nov 29, 2020 283   Northwestern St. W 83-69 90%    
  Dec 03, 2020 278   Louisiana Monroe W 73-59 89%    
  Dec 06, 2020 30   @ LSU L 71-82 16%    
  Dec 09, 2020 319   SE Louisiana W 84-66 94%    
  Dec 12, 2020 185   @ Louisiana W 77-74 59%    
  Dec 15, 2020 300   Jackson St. W 76-61 91%    
  Dec 19, 2020 236   Lamar W 77-65 84%    
  Dec 22, 2020 278   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-62 75%    
  Jan 01, 2021 110   Marshall W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 02, 2021 110   Marshall W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 08, 2021 82   @ Western Kentucky L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 09, 2021 82   @ Western Kentucky L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 15, 2021 153   Texas San Antonio W 82-75 71%    
  Jan 16, 2021 153   Texas San Antonio W 82-75 71%    
  Jan 22, 2021 161   @ UTEP W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 23, 2021 161   @ UTEP W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 28, 2021 229   @ Southern Miss W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 30, 2021 229   Southern Miss W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 05, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 06, 2021 95   @ North Texas L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 12, 2021 131   UAB W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 13, 2021 131   UAB W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 19, 2021 193   @ Middle Tennessee W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 20, 2021 193   @ Middle Tennessee W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 26, 2021 265   Rice W 81-68 86%    
  Feb 27, 2021 265   Rice W 81-68 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 4.4 3.3 1.5 0.5 15.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.1 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 5.3 3.5 0.9 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.6 3.2 0.8 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.9 0.9 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.7 1.4 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.0 6.2 7.8 10.0 11.4 12.3 12.0 11.0 8.6 6.2 3.6 1.5 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
17-1 98.4% 1.5    1.5 0.1
16-2 91.7% 3.3    2.7 0.6 0.0
15-3 70.7% 4.4    2.9 1.3 0.1
14-4 40.7% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 14.7% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 9.3 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 90.2% 59.3% 30.9% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.0%
17-1 1.5% 84.4% 45.3% 39.1% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 71.5%
16-2 3.6% 66.7% 43.9% 22.8% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 40.7%
15-3 6.2% 47.7% 32.7% 15.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 22.3%
14-4 8.6% 27.9% 22.8% 5.2% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.2 6.7%
13-5 11.0% 21.5% 20.0% 1.5% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 8.6 1.9%
12-6 12.0% 13.2% 12.8% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.4%
11-7 12.3% 7.8% 7.4% 0.4% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.3 0.4%
10-8 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.7
9-9 10.0% 3.1% 3.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
8-10 7.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.7
7-11 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
6-12 4.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.6% 12.4% 3.2% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.9 4.2 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 84.4 3.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 18.2 28.3 22.2 15.2 16.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 7.6 7.4 3.7 29.6 29.6 29.6